CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Friday there are “slight signs of Trump momentum” in seven key battleground states just four days before the 2024 election.
As of November 1, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris by an average of less than 1 percentage point across swing states, Mr. Enten said, but the average of these polls is within a 3.4 percentage point margin of error. The former president’s narrow lead in Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt states suggests that her momentum is increasing while Harris’s is waning.
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“Historically, it’s a tough situation. Arizona has the widest lead with Trump at +3, Georgia is +2, North Carolina is +1, and Nevada is tied. I think the change is that I got used to seeing blue. [in the Great Lakes states] …But it’s actually red, and if you take the average poll, Pennsylvania is also red. Again, it’s a very, very, very close race, but it’s Trump by barely less than 1 point in Pennsylvania. But the bottom line is, this is a historically tough race and always will be a historically tough race, and we have no idea who will win on Tuesday. ”
“I’d like to point out a few little things here. If you look at the kind of momentum we’re seeing here right now, I think this drives home the point I was trying to make. There’s probably going to be a change, a little bit of a change.”The momentum here. Last month, when looking at the entire battleground race as of October 1st, the difference with Harris was less than 1 point. Here we are on November 1st, and Trump is leading by less than 1 point across all battleground states. But the important thing to keep in mind is that the state poll average is 3.4 points, so if you look at results like this and they’re changing from less than 1 point to less than 1 point, Trump’s I would say there are a few signs. There is momentum, but it is within the margin of error. ”
According to Enten, if the former president wins Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, he will receive 312 electoral votes and become the next president. If Harris is underrepresented in the polls, she would win all battleground states and secure 319 electoral votes. (Related: CNN’s John King breaks down how each candidate was able to narrowly win key battleground states)
vote CNBC and the Wall Street Journal reported in late October that Trump had secured a national lead over Harris after trailing the vice president in the first months of the campaign. MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said on his Oct. 24 show that the vice president’s popularity declined in October after she engaged in a media blitzkrieg with mostly friendly media outlets. He said this shows the momentum is going downhill.
Enten said on CNN on Oct. 25 that Trump could be on track to become the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote since 2004.
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