Claire Barkley of Ohio always portrayed her having a second baby. But seeing reproductive rights erosion and the fight over public education and healthcare, she said the world felt like it was changing dramatically and she wasn’t sure she wanted to roll the dice.

Kristen Witkowski, the two North Carolina mom, suffers from several life-threatening complications related to pregnancy. She might have thought about having a third child, but now it’s so scary to get pregnant again, so it’s fine if she tied her fallopian tubes during her second caesarean section I said.

And Brenna Craven Dumas, the mother of two from Arizona who had a high-risk pregnancy, wanted to be sure she didn’t have another, so she tied the tube and told her husband. I asked him to have a vascular resection.

These women live in states where abortions are currently or previously prohibited, and cite those policies as part of or main reasons for fertility decisions.

National fertility rate – The number of births per 1,000 reproductive age has steadily declined in the US over the past decade, from 62.5 in 2013 to 54.5 in 2023, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data show that reductions are present in all conditions to varying degrees. During the same time frame, fees fell sharply in states with abortion bans, including Idaho, which saw prices drop from 71.8 to 57.5, and in states with abortion bans, including Arizona, which fell from 66.3 to 54.1.

These declines in fertility were the best in the minds of elected politicians who were linked to President Donald Trump’s second term administration. That’s the central part Project 2025a blueprint of Trump’s presidency written by a conservative heritage foundation and several anti-abortion organizations.

in Notes published on January 29th The new U.S. Department of Transportation Sean Duffy’s Office has directed programs supported or supported by the Transportation Fund to prioritize communities with higher marriage and fertility rates than the national average. As a Wisconsin legislator, Duffy supported and co-hosted numerous abortion bills, including bills to reimburse planned custody.

Vice President JD Vance has expressed concern over a decline in fertility rates over several years, and denies that during the 2024 presidential election he was too detached from the ideal of childless women and society as a whole from his ideal of becoming a parent. Comments like this have repeatedly attracted attention. He said that the policies he supports restricting or banning abortion access have not contributed to fees, advocating for higher taxes for those without children, and expanding child tax credits to help families. It claims to advocate for

“Our society didn’t recognize the obligation that one generation had another is a central part of living in society in the first place,” Vance said in January. He spoke at the annual anti-abortion life event. “So, let’s just say it very simply: I want more babies in the United States.”

Why is there a low fertility rate?

Phillip Cohen, a sociology professor at the University of Maryland who specializes in population science, said that birth rates have declined for centuries as modern culture has moved away from using children as a source of labor. .

“So, it lowers you from eight kids per woman to three or four. And the question is, why are you so much lowered to such a small number?” Cohen said.

Over the past 20 years, he attributes decline to positive and negative factors. People have more opportunities to spend time on other ways, especially women, along with more career and life goals that were previously more difficult or impossible to pursue. While some women manage both their careers and their families, there is often pressure to choose one for financial, social or individual reasons.

The negative factors that are reducing the rate of decline are the cost of having a child, uncertainty and risk, Coen said.

“Concerns about being able to raise children who are competitive in an increasingly unequal world and being able to raise children who can succeed in a society where the punishment for not succeeding appears to be growing. There is,” Cohen said. “If you’re worried about what will happen to your child and the fact that there are Americans indeed, you can increase your chances of success with fewer children. “

That applies to Katie T. of Alabama. Growing up as one of four children in Alabama, she always thought she had a big family, perhaps five children.

However, due to Trump’s reelection, the economy and political developments over the past few years, including five months as a first-time mother, she decided that one baby was enough.

She and her husband “finished alone” after their son, born in August. During pregnancy, Katie is about living in a state with a near-close abortion ban, especially as a pregnant woman close to 35, where pregnancy is considered medically high risk, in case something goes wrong. He said it was already emphasized. The closest state to gain widespread access to abortion is Virginia, about 10 hours away by car.

“After giving birth to the baby, I talked about birth control options for my first test, and I’ve already mentioned what I’m not thinking about in our future anymore. I spoke at length with my husband,” Katie said, T. asked her not to use her last name because of her political beliefs due to fear of retaliation in her community.

Not only that, but the finances have also become heavier.

“We now realize that daycare is a literal second mortgage payment and we can’t afford it,” she said.

She said it was a disappointment that she had no brothers for her son. For a long time, it was important for her to have multiple children, as she describes that all her brothers are older than her and that she grew up essentially as the only child. But in the face of the reality of the political battle over vaccines and education systems, Katie said eight years of contraceptive implants were placed shortly after the election.

“I hope he will forgive us one day,” she said.

“If something happens, where do you go from there?”

Kiley Devor, 28, moved from California to Idaho to earn a degree in physical therapy and currently specializes in pelvic bed therapy. She and her husband bought the house thinking they could stay in Idaho for a while until the US Supreme Court issued a DOBBS decision in June 2022, and Idaho implemented a roughly consistent abortion ban. . The state has been at the heart of several abortion-related cases over the past two years, including a June Supreme Court lawsuit over whether abortions conducted in medical emergencies would be eligible for prosecutors under state law. That issue is still pending in the 9th Circuit US Court of Appeals.

Meanwhile, Devor said he discovered other health issues in addition to endometriosis, which could make the child even more difficult.

“I’m just a guy, it’s going to be very difficult for us to get pregnant, so that’s one hurdle and then if something happens, where will we go from there?” she said Ta. “If you need to use an IVF or IUI, if you travel out of state and spend another 10 or 20 grounds to get the care you need, that’s not feasible.”

Devor’s husband has launched a comprehensive contracting business in Idaho.

“It was an interesting experience of moving to a state where people say, ‘We don’t want a big government’, but at the same time you can talk to people.

Idaho economists have not seen any concerning trends so far in population movements

One Recent research The National Economic Research Agency said 13 states with a total abortion ban collectively lose 36,000 residents per quarter based on changes to address data from the U.S. Postal Service. According to data from the American Community Survey, nearly 82,000 people moved to Idaho in 2023, while around 65,000 people moved due to a net increase in the population of around 16,700 residents.

Jan Rother, a regional economist with the Idaho Department of Labor, said that the state’s population growth has slowed over the past two years but has accelerated significantly during the symbiotic pandemic between 2020 and 2022.

Roeser said more young people may be leaving the state as seven districts announced or considered school closures due to a decline in registration in the first half of 2023. Idaho Education News. But Idaho is one of the eight youngest states in the country and one of the leading states for job growth, she said.

“We all want to be able to jump and move based on our beliefs, but the reality that most of us need work is a hit,” Roser said. Ta. “So, really, economic opportunity is what I think people can make that final decision because it’s expensive and that’s disorienting.”

Roser isn’t too worried about competing until she starts looking at indicators like a surge in layoffs and a decline in state enrolment. However, she is worried about a steady decline in fertility rates.

“Of course there’s not much you can do about it, and once it starts it takes a long time to turn around,” she said. “It’s not something that can be solved by coming up with public policy.”

Cohen said that abortion bans could initially lead to a slight increase in births as access is difficult to reach, but in the long run it creates uncertainty and fear of pregnancy Therefore, we expect this to contribute to the decline.

Economically, an increase in fertility rates is a financial outflow, potentially hindering growth, he said. That doesn’t mean that policies that make it easier to have more children are not worth having, but should not be done to increase births.

“It’s one of the big wins in human development that allowed people to lower their fertility,” he said.

“I’m not going to let them down.”

For some people, having more children is almost an act of resistance.

Rachel West, a 34-year-old resident of central Texas, gave birth to her baby five months ago after a three-year pregnancy struggle. She wants at least one more, but knows that it could be another stressful experience due to where she lives. Texas has a near-abortion ban, and the Attorney General I tried to indict him A woman who left the state to have an abortion. There are also Texas cities I tried to enact a travel ban To prevent women from crossing state lines for abortion.

At the beginning of her pregnancy, West said there was concern that her embryo was ectopic as the baby grows in the fallopian tubes rather than the uterus. Ectopic pregnancy is not feasible and requires termination to prevent infection and loss of fertility.

“We had to think about what it would look like if we had a hard time finding someone and had to finish it,” she said. “It was scary. We were spiraling a bit at home trying to figure out what we were going to do.”

As someone who has struggled to get pregnant for the first time, West is worried about his efforts to limit or ban IVF. But all news developments don’t hamper the idea of ​​having something else.

“We’ve always wanted to have at least two, perhaps three children. If we had to dramatically change our personal lives due to Texas law, I would be very It’s frustrating,” West said. “I’m pretty much proud of that.