Post Shared by X Former President Donald Trump claims a 15% lead in the polls over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Currently, polls show Trump leading Harris with 15%!
If he wins, the biggest #bitcoin A bull market begins. pic.twitter.com/dmyRuWr0Ew
— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) November 4, 2024
Verdict: False
Polymarket is a betting odds platform, not a voting platform.
Fact check:
Social media users claim Trump has a 15% lead over Harris in polls. One user wrote, “Trump is currently leading Harris with 15% in the polls!” If he wins, the biggest #bitcoin A bull market always begins. ”
This claim is false. Firstly, Polymarket is a betting odds platform, not a voting aggregator. As NBC News report“We offer betting on sports, business, science, politics, and more. report Users reportedly spent more than $2.7 billion betting on the next president. ”
Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, said: said X states that “prediction markets provide the public with a much-needed alternative data source.” Polymarket also stated the following in an article on October 21st. blog post “The main difference between polls and polymarkets is their outcome. Polls estimate the vote share, whereas prediction markets and election models estimate the probability of a particular outcome.”
Actual polling aggregator: 538 and RealClearPolitics show the election is very close. For example, RealClearPolitics show As of November 4, Trump and Harris were tied at 48.5%. (Related: Did FEMA hire illegal immigrants for hurricane relief efforts?)
Polymarket reportedly spent tens of thousands of dollars promoting election betting on social media platforms including Facebook, Instagram and X. NBC News.
