Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a commanding lead over former President Trump in California, but the latest polls show Trump’s support is growing among Latino voters in the state. , troubling signs are emerging for Democrats at the national level.

Harris’ 57% to 35% lead over Trump in California as a whole has changed little from the 59% to 34% lead in August, according to a study by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Government, co-sponsored by the Times. Not yet.

The state is unlikely to break its record of voting Democratic in every presidential election since 1988, when President George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis. the Number of electoral votes 54 The biggest prize on Election Day is almost certain to go to Harris.

Harris’ lead among Latinos in the state is about the same as her overall vote share, 54% to 35%. However, this number is a significant decrease from President Biden’s lead in 2020, when exit polls showed President Biden leading President Trump among California Latinos, 75% to 23%.

The new poll is consistent with other national and battleground state polls showing declining support for Democrats from the group of voters who have been the core of the ruling coalition in recent decades. That shift began in 2020, when Biden lost support among Latino voters compared to 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Harris leads Trump average National opinion polls show that the number is between 2 and 3 percentage points, but the competition for electoral votes is expected to be tough. throw up.

Two of the seven battleground states, Arizona and Nevada, have large Latino populations and are likely to have a decisive impact. With polls showing close races, Latino voters could also make a difference in other battleground states with fewer votes, such as Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

“If there’s any place where the happiest Latinos, the most progressive Latinos are, it’s here,” said Cristina Mora, co-director of the Institute for Government Studies and an expert on immigration and racial politics. says. “But they are experiencing the pain of inequality.”

Latinos, who make up about 3 in 10 California voters, are among those hardest hit by the state’s housing crisis and inflation, which has subsided in recent months but continues to rise. It is one. The Biden administration’s lack of progress on immigration reform is also dampening enthusiasm among progressive Latinos, Mora said.

Despite a history of using inflammatory metaphors such as that immigrants are “tainting our nation’s blood” and “taking away black people’s jobs,” Mr. The system has benefited from the dissatisfaction of several segments of the population. ”

Harris, the first South Asian American and first Black woman to run for president, also lost some support from Asian and Black voters compared to 2020, but they still support her coalition. It occupies an important part. She is supported by 66% of Asian/Pacific Islanders and 72% of Black California voters.

Harris is making up some of her losses in California with white voters, where she leads Trump 56% to 37%, compared to Biden’s 51% to 47% in 2020. This is a bigger difference than the superiority of White college-educated voters are turning to Democrats, while non-college-educated voters are turning to Trump.

Trump has a slight lead among white Californians without a college degree. Opinion polls show Harris with an overwhelming lead among voters.

These educational divides also help explain some of Trump’s gains among black and Latino voters without degrees.

The poll found that only a small portion (5%) of likely voters are still undecided, similar to the national polling average of 5.6%. But the poll’s relatively large sample size of more than 3,000 voters gave it more insight into the group than other polls typically provide.

These undecided voters are more likely to view Mr. Trump negatively (55%-31%) than Ms. Harris (43%-39%), believing that Mr. Trump is too extreme and that if elected president, they would not support democracy. They are likely to consider it a risk. But at the same time, he expects Trump to do a better job managing the economy and foreign affairs than Harris and “have the toughness to be president.”

These voters see Trump as deeply flawed and are more likely to see Harris as a unifier, said pollster Mark DiCamillo. “But they still think he’s the stronger candidate given many of these characteristics.”

Both campaigns are aware of these discrepancies among undecided voters and have been honing their messages in the final weeks of the campaign in hopes of winning over them.

Harris has run ads featuring Trump’s former advisers, criticizing Trump as unfit for office and reminding voters of her role in inciting the campaign. January 6, 2021 Rebellion; other ads tout her economic plans. President Trump’s commercials have focused on inflation and other economic issues, with some specifically targeting Harris on issues such as immigration and transgender rights.

Despite the focus on undecided voters, most Americans who intend to vote have already made up their minds. But they view the candidate’s ideology through a different lens.

California voters tend to view President Trump as conservative from a variety of standpoints. However, opinions on Harris vary. One-third of her voters view her as a moderate, and just 5% view her as “very liberal,” while more than 80% of Trump supporters view her as very liberal. It is considered that