Mika Brzezinski, co-host of MSNBC's “Morning Joe,” on Tuesday morning reported on NBC's new poll showing former President Donald Trump gaining significant support among evangelicals. Steve Kornacki was beside himself after his analysis.
The Iowa caucuses will be held on January 15th, with Trump still leading the Republican field.
“With less than a week until the Iowa caucuses, a new poll shows former President Trump is making even more inroads with two major groups: evangelicals and first-time caucus participants compared to 2016.” Brzezinski said, visibly shaking his head. Sense of distrust. “NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki joins us from the big leagues. Steve, what do the latest polls tell you about Trump's victory over these two groups? , I have no words for evangelical voters at this point.”
“This is a dramatic shift since 2016 in terms of President Trump's position on evangelicals,” Kornacki responded. “We've seen this nationally, but I think it's the biggest thing in Iowa. As a refresher, eight years ago…Trump lost Iowa. He came in second behind Ted Cruz. He narrowly held off Marco Rubio to take third place,” Kornacki explained. “Remember there were a few days in Iowa in 2016. [when] People were saying, “Maybe the whole Trump thing is going to fall apart.'' He eventually turned things around by winning New Hampshire. ”
“But here's the reason — the most important reason why Donald Trump lost Iowa in 2016 — that Cruz beat Trump among evangelicals by 12 points.” He gestured to the screen showing. “This is the caucus exit poll. This is the evangelical vote. About 64 percent of Iowa Republican voters in 2016 were evangelical.”
“And lo and behold, Ted Cruz won. He beat Donald Trump by a double-digit margin, 34 to 22. So Mr. Cruz, who had a double-digit victory among evangelicals, had a lot of “There was resistance and a lot of skepticism. Mr. Trump had some support from evangelicals, but Mr. Cruz was the evangelical candidate in Iowa in 2016,” Kornacki added. .
He went on to explain Trump's current position on Iowa evangelicals as the 2024 caucuses approach.
“The latest NBC News/Des Moines Register poll in Iowa. This was about a month ago, but this is what we've been seeing all year. Among evangelicals; Look at this turnaround,” he said as the screen changed. It shows Trump holding a 51-26 lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis among evangelicals. (Related: CNN Data Reporter: Trump scores 'strongest' poll numbers in Iowa caucus poll 'in history')
Kornacki then explained that Trump also improved in 2016 among first-time caucus attendees. In the 2016 campaign, Mr. Trump won with this demographic, receiving 30% of the first-time vote, compared to Mr. Cruz's 23%, Mr. Kornacki said. Mr. Trump currently has a 63% approval rating among first-time attendees of the Iowa caucuses, giving him a more than 50-point lead over Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Kornacki said.
Morning consultation poll In a survey of 353 likely Republican caucus participants conducted between December 1, 2023 and January 7, 2024, 58% said they supported Trump. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley came in second, followed by DeSantis in third.
