CNN’s Jake Tapper acknowledged Monday that former President Donald Trump could win if the 2024 presidential election were held tomorrow, based on data from prominent pollster Nate Silver. .
Democratic Party is growing increasingly concerned As November approaches, polls and experts are warning that Vice President Kamala Harris is lagging behind key voting groups such as black men and Hispanics. On “Lead with Jake Tapper,” the CNN host shared statistics from Silver’s latest election predictions, highlighting Trump’s lead in key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. . (Related: CNN’s Harry Enten says even if Harris leads in early voting, Trump will likely “close the gap” on Election Day)
“Also, let’s look at the current state of the race. You can do this using actual clear political averages, CNN averages, etc. But just looking at today, Nate Silver ‘s Silver Bullet Substack shows Trump with a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Harris with a probable lead in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, and tied in Pennsylvania.
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“If we end up like that tomorrow, it’s basically a Trump victory, so ultimately,” Tapper continued. “Because she needs the three blue wall states and Nevada and she doesn’t have it right now. Do you care about the state of the race this second? Be honest. ”
Former Biden campaign aide Ashley Allison went on to say how concerned she was about the outcome of the race, and the America First Policy Institute’s communications director said she was “more confident” in Trump’s victory. “There is,” he said.
On Sunday’s Substack piece, Silver said He said the latest data on Harris is “pretty negative,” noting that Trump currently has a lead in three national polls.
“The data continues to be significantly negative for Kamala Harris,” Silver wrote. “There are now three recent high-quality national polls showing Donald Trump in the lead, but given the Democratic Electoral College disadvantage, it’s difficult for Harris to… It’s a difficult situation, with her lead in the national poll average dropping to 1.7 points, although national polls don’t have much of an impact on the model, and the race remains essentially a close contest. , it’s not hard to see why Trump would win.
Mr. Silver’s current Electoral College prediction Trump has a 53% chance of winning, but Harris has a slight lead in the popular vote by 1.6%. Additionally, the RealClearPolitics polling average recently showed Harris’ approval rating at 47.5%, compared to 48.3% in seven key battleground states, giving the former president a 0.8 percentage point lead. It was done.
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