Democrats have centered their 2026 campaign around a significant piece of legislation, but it seems to be underpinned by various falsehoods and misleading information. The left-leaning media appears to echo the Democratic agenda while downplaying accurate coverage of this law.
Every Republican incumbent and candidate should be ready to talk about OBBB. It’s touted as one of the most worker-friendly, pro-family, and small-business supportive laws ever enacted in the U.S.
Recent polling from the U.S. Majority Project indicates that voters might elevate their support for GOP candidates when they understand the implications of the OBBB, including those Republicans who are generally opposed to it.
Target Voter Group
The campaign targets two main voter segments.
- New majority – About 72% of voters hold key values but currently favor Republicans who aren’t meeting expectations. If the GOP can secure 70% of this support, it could form a governing majority similar to FDR’s New Deal coalition.
- Non-verified MAGA – Roughly 11% of voters, who appreciate Trump’s policies but are undecided or plan to vote Democratic. Just a 70% win from this group, while keeping current support levels, could position the GOP favorably for 2026.
In broader terms, poll results show a Democratic preference of 46% to 43% over Republicans. However, among the new majority, Republicans have a lead of 57% to 28%. In contrast, unidentified MAGA voters show a Democratic lead of 41%, with many remaining undecided.
Interestingly, Republican backing surged when voters were informed about specific OBBB regulations.
The most convincing OBBB regulations
- Prevention of the largest tax increase in U.S. history
Trump’s tax cuts from 2017 were set to lapse at the year’s end, risking a major tax hike for all Americans. The OBBB has made those tax rates permanent, effectively averting what would have been a historic increase.
In surveys, when presented with the choice between Republicans who blocked this tax hike and Democrats who supported it, Republican support jumped 17 points overall and 18 points among the new majority, achieving 61% among undecided MAGA voters.
Conversely, alternative framings attracted far less support.
- “The biggest tax cut in American history” – Only gained plus 5 points overall, plus 5 among new majority voters, and 43% among undecided MAGA voters.
- “Extending the 2017 Trump tax cut” – Stagnated with no profit among new majority voters and only 35% among undecided MAGA voters.
Voters seem to grasp this problem better when framed around stopping a tax increase rather than as a tax cut or extension. Republicans would do well to clarify this messaging.
- Tax reductions aimed at workers, families, seniors, and businesses
The OBBB has removed taxes on tips and overtime, expanded child tax credits, lowered taxes for seniors, and promoted U.S. manufacturing. Knowing this push increased Republican support by 17 points overall and 16 points within the new majority, with 62% of undecided MAGA voters on board. - Healthcare cost reduction via expanded HSAs
This legislation broadens eligibility and coverage for health savings accounts, leading to a 17-point jump in Republican support across the board and a 16-point increase among the new majority, reaching 56% of undecided MAGA voters. - Access to vocational training for low-income Americans
Thanks to OBBB, Pell Grants are now usable for community college employment training programs. Awareness of this benefit boosted Republican favor by 19 points overall and 12 points among the new majority, with 52% support from undecided MAGA voters. - Medicaid reforms and increased funding
The OBBB strengthens Medicaid by updating eligibility verification processes, ensuring that resources focus on low-income mothers, children, and the disabled. Despite Democratic opposition, Medicaid funding is expected to rise by $20 billion by 2036, a 31% increase.
When given a choice between Republican lawmakers promoting these reforms and their Democratic counterparts who did not support them, Republicans enjoyed a nine-point gain among all voters, a ten-point gain among new majority voters, and 48% support among undecided MAGA voters.
Polls also reveal that many voters believe OBBB leads to slower Medicaid spending growth, with some describing GOP budgets as reduced.
When discussing lowered spending linked to work requirements, a significant 53% categorize it as “savings” for safety net programs, while only 25% see it as “cuts.”
Winning in 2026
As Margaret Thatcher once said, “First you win the argument, then you win the vote.” Republicans can achieve both by sharing factual information and challenging the narratives pushed by Democrats, special interests, and the media.
A strategist from the Democratic Party cautioned against underestimating the intelligence of American voters or overestimating their level of information. The truth surrounding OBBB encourages voters to side with the GOP and reject Democratic misrepresentation.
The ongoing budget conversation presents a strong opportunity for Republicans while posing significant political risks for Democrats.
