Bucks County, Pennsylvania — It’s nearly impossible to find a street in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, where the sidewalks aren’t lined with Trump Vance and Harris Walz signs.

The county is widely considered to be one of the last remaining battleground states outside of Philadelphia and one of the most important battleground states in 2024. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won Bucks County by less than 2,000 votes. 2016Former President Donald Trump led the state, en route to victory in Pennsylvania and the general election, where President Joe Biden won the state by about 17,000 votes. 2020.

With only a few days left until Election Day, Republicans and Democrats are playing tape and doing their best to portray the county, and the Keystone State, in their party’s favor. There has been an influx of outside groups aligned with both parties. billions of millions Huge amounts of money were spent on presidential elections and opposition votes. (Related: ‘It’s just a dead heat’: Harry Enten tells CNN host 2024 is the ‘closest’ election I’ve ever seen)

Look at the numbers

Bucks County is also a cross-section of the entire state, including urban, suburban, suburban, and rural areas. Trump campaign officials told DCNF that county makeup and demographic breakdowns are a good indicator of how things will fare across the state, and are counties to watch closely as gains begin to rise.

Nearly every prominent pollster and commentator in the country predicts that Bucks County will be in the middle of a partisan tug-of-war, and that Pennsylvania will be as competitive as possible. But Barry Summers, a data engineering consultant who spends his days meticulously analyzing Bucks County voting data to help elect Republicans, says the current early voting and mail-in voting data is He said he believes that suggests he will win the county by a few percentage points. DCNF.

Compared to the 2020 cycle, Republicans in Bucks County have seen an increase of about 20,000 mail-in ballots, or 60%, while Democrats have cast about 79,000 votes so far in the 2020 cycle. successfully secured 98% of postal votes. Summers told DCNF. Meanwhile, Bucks County saw a 21% increase in mail-in ballots from independent and unaffiliated voters in the 2024 cycle compared to the 2020 cycle, Summers said.

Summers also noted that while Republican mail-in voting volume has accelerated since early October, the pace of early voting for Democrats has slowed since then, and that independent and unaffiliated voters are “in much the same pattern. “They then send their votes later.” Republicans are,” Summers said. While this pattern alone proves nothing about voter intent, Summers suggests that unaffiliated and unaffiliated voters may be a good fit for Republicans.

Some of this early voting could cannibalize Republican votes on Election Day, Summers said, but much of this early voting is from low-propensity voters, and few reliable Republican voters. He said there is reason to believe that will appear on the Nov. 5 ballot. DCNF. Additionally, Summers believes it’s a clear sign that key Democratic constituencies, such as young people, are not as enthusiastic.

“Democratic propaganda says that young people are angry and voting in droves. That’s not happening in Bucks County. “We looked at what percentage of people who voted by mail by age were Democrats,” Summers told DCNF. “The largest percentage of Democratic voters are in their 30s, meaning people in their 30s register more as Democrats to vote by mail than any other age, and their college turnout is about the same as the countywide Democratic average.” It’s very comparable.”

“So what does that tell us?” Summers continued. “This tells us that college-age Democrats in Bucks County were just as motivated to apply for a mail-in ballot as the average Democrat overall. All of them were excited and others There’s no surge in youth voting that can’t be bothered. It’s just not happening. There’s no passion in youth voting.”

Additionally, if this trend holds, given that Bucks County has traditionally had a male-biased independent and unaffiliated early voting vote, and President Trump is likely to receive more support from men than women in the 2024 cycle. Summers said it would be an advantage for President Trump. (Related: Experts say key battleground states are once again ‘critical’ to President Trump’s chances of taking back the White House)

Right now: Here in Doylestown, Pennsylvania, voters are lining up around the block to save their votes. @DailyCaller news foundation pic.twitter.com/bR73fQILMW

— Nick Pope (@realnickpope) October 29, 2024

“We’re pretty confident.”

Other Republicans on the ground in Bucks County also feel as confident as they can be, although they have more anecdotal support than the numbers Summers cited. Several Bucks County Republicans said Trump could theoretically lose Bucks County by about 2 percentage points or less and still do well statewide, as happened in the 2016 campaign. he pointed out.

“I’m cautiously optimistic. What we’re seeing on the ground here in Bucks County is a wave unlike anything we’ve seen in 2020 or even 2016,” said Doylestown Republican Committee Public Relations Chairman. Ed Shepherd told DCNF. “People who have never voted before are registering to vote Republican. And in Bucks County, I think the top of the ticket is going to move the no votes.”

Trump voters in Bucks County also showed a level of enthusiasm and urgency from grassroots Republicans not felt in 2020, as they gathered Wednesday at a McDonald’s franchise in the county where the former president campaigned in early October. He told DCNF that he felt that way. Officials and volunteers working to count voters also said in conversations with DCNF that they are sensing and seeing strong enthusiasm for Trump on the ground.

Meanwhile, local Democrats are focusing on issues of suburban women and access to abortion in hopes of delivering victories in the county for candidates who voted against Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Women have been underrepresented for a long time, but we may be the reason Bucks turns blue and elects President Harris,” Anna Payne, a Democratic candidate for Congress in her home state of Pennsylvania, told The New Yorker in October. spoke. For Democrats, both nationally and in Pennsylvania, aggressively campaigning for abortion access could be key to reaching enough suburban women voters to secure electoral victory. Time magazine recently reported that he is betting that. reported.

Some Bucks County Republicans are concerned about the power of college-educated women for the Democratic Party, but they are also concerned that college-educated women, long-time donors to President Trump, will be in Pennsylvania at the Republican National Convention this summer. Some, like Jim Worthington, who led the delegation, don’t think abortion is that important. A Bucks County election issue that could have come up in the 2022 midterm elections, coming just months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

“This issue is not only about mail-in voting, but it’s also the issue that cost Dr. Oz his election in the Senate race. Those are the two issues that cost him the election, and they’re from Mr. Roe’s ouster to Because he was just born,” Worthington told DCNF. “The Democratic Party used that as a weapon because the public didn’t understand it. And as time went on, more and more people understood that the power was back to each state and the voters in each state. So , I think it hardly matters.”

Worthington’s small army of volunteers, which mobilizes voters, consistently hears from female voters about inflationary pressures and rising costs of living, she added.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign sees no pressing need to tailor specific messages to suburban women in Bucks County, other than asking voters to consider whether their lives are better now than they were four years ago. No, campaign officials told DCNF.

“Our topline message is the same no matter who we’re talking to. That includes men and women, young and old, white, black, Asian, Hispanic, and everyone else. And our message is, are you better now than you were four years ago?” a Trump campaign official told DCNF. “We’re talking about basic issues like the kitchen table, inflation, cost of living, affordability. We’re talking about biological men being involved in their own and their daughters’ sports and sports leagues. Things like playing and using the same locker/bathroom facilities. We’re talking about immigration and crime, especially in areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh…we don’t deal with that. [suburban women] It’s like an exotic other, but a different group of voters influenced by far-left forces like inflation, crime, and biological men who play women’s sports. ”

“Obviously, we’re not resting on our laurels or taking anything for granted, but overall we feel very strongly about Bucks County and the rest of Pennsylvania. I am confident.”

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