Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, suggested Friday that it is uncertain whether polling organizations are accurately measuring support for former President Donald Trump.
Trump topped polls in the 2016 election, when he defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and in the 2020 election, when he narrowly lost to President Joe Biden. Sabato told CNN News Central that he has spoken with a number of polling organizations and tried to improve their methods, but it remains to be seen whether they have fully resolved the issue of poll accuracy. (Related: Kamala Harris co-sponsors bill to force schools to let male athletes compete in girls’ sports)
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“They’re very fragile instruments. And even with really good polling agencies, sometimes there are outliers that aren’t representative, just for statistical reasons. So the data that’s available We need to look at the entire world of , and if we do that, I think we can reasonably conclude two things,” Sabato said. “One is that the good pollsters, the ones who are willing to spend money to get better at their jobs so as not to embarrass themselves after Election Day, are hiding from the pollsters who support Donald. It’s about trying to improve the polls by taking into account the people who were polled.” President Trump was disproportionate in 2016 and 2020. ”
“That’s good. This is bad news, because I’ve talked to a lot of pollsters about this. They don’t know if it’s going to work this time either,” he added.
Mr. Trump currently has a slight advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in six of the seven key battleground states, with the vice president’s lead in Wisconsin just 0.3 percentage points. According to RealClearPolling average. Enten, CNN’s senior data reporter, said Tuesday that if Trump wins the 2024 polls by the same margin he won against Biden in 2020, he will win enough battleground states to “overwhelm” Harris. He pointed out that he would get it.
Enten said Friday that Harris’ 1-point lead in independently compiled data from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is narrower than it was three weeks ago, and that it was narrower than it was three weeks ago, compared to Clinton on Oct. 11 in 2016 and 2020. He said that was significantly lower than the lead Biden held over Trump.
“Well, if you look at eight years ago, Hillary Clinton averaged eight points better on those three, and she was eight points better,” Enten said. “Four years ago, Joe Biden had an average lead of 7 points in the three Great Lakes battleground states; today, Kamala Harris has just a one point lead in the three Great Lakes battleground states. is.”
“So, at least in the polls, Kamala Harris is doing significantly worse than Biden and Clinton. And of course, Clinton lost in all three of those states. And Joe Biden lost in all three of those states. We barely won,” he added. “So when you see Harris leading by just one point between those three, I think this is the type of thing that Democrats are really worried about.”
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