The road to the White House runs through the Rust Belt. There is no way around it.
Trump won in 2016 because he won every election from 1992 to 2012 in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which were run by Democrats. Trump won those states by a combined margin of just 77,744 votes.
Trump’s re-election ended in failure as he lost all three states in addition to Arizona and Georgia. Biden won those last two states by just 22,236 votes, making him a prime target for Republicans in 2024. The problem is that reclaiming these traditional Republican strongholds is not enough to take control of the White House. Unless Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania turn red next November, Sleepy Joe will continue for another four years. It’s just a simple calculation.
It’s so easy that even Biden can handle it. Mr. Trump won these three states largely because of his image as an economic populist who cares about white working-class voters crushed by deindustrialization. Hillary Clinton lost Because the same voters saw her as a neoliberal free-trade fanatic who was willing to move her job overseas and let them die. She didn’t even campaign in Michigan or Wisconsin.
These states have returned to blue in 2020 for two reasons. First, Biden was able to use anti-Trump sentiment to boost voter turnout among blue suburban residents. Second, because Biden didn’t offend the Rust Belt proletariat as much as Hillary did. In 2024, the latter group will be far more important than the former, especially if Biden ultimately wins. Confront DeSantis.
That means Biden needs to expand the white working-class voter share to keep those three states alive, and he’s worked hard for the past two and a half years to do that. (Related: Biden’s ‘Green’ Manufacturing Plan Faces Big Problems: Report)
Mr. Biden effectively edged out Republicans on economic policy. President Trump has vowed to crack down on China and bring back manufacturing. Well, Biden gave a body blow to a rising superpower with chips and science law while keeping President Trump’s tariffs on China.according to financial timesU.S. companies responded by immediately pouring more than $200 billion into new domestic manufacturing projects in the semiconductor and clean energy sectors, 20 times the 2019 figure.
Biden also issued an executive order “supporting American manufacturing” by directing federal agencies to “buy American products” and passed $1.2 trillion in infrastructure spending, dwarfing the policies of his predecessor. realized one of Unfulfilled Campaign Promise. Come 2024, Mr. Biden will be able to tour the new jobs and factories created by his own policies. To independent voters watching TV, Biden would appear to be the Forgotten Man candidate.
Today marks one year since President Biden signed the Infrastructure Act into law.
Mr Trump says. Biden will do it. pic.twitter.com/O7wvgBKSxJ— Democrats (@TheDemocrats) November 15, 2022
Republicans who want to undermine those gains by talking about inflation are fooling themselves. Inflation was 4.9% in April, down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. By the time voters make their way to polling stations, it could be even lower.
And Tea Party-era denunciations of out-of-control government spending aren’t enough to get us through today. At this point, we all know that Republicans don’t really cut spending when they’re in power. (Related: McCarthy says Biden withheld 89% of budget during negotiations)
The Republican Party cannot afford to ignore the economy and defy the awakening.still in the party Dobbs It hangs around its neck like an albatross. Some mothers will vote for their daughter’s right to kill her grandchildren in her womb instead of suburban mothers who are horrified by the porn in the middle school library. The best we can hope for on the culture war issue is a stalemate. Republican nominees should clearly oppose critical racial theories, drag queen storyhours, and trans women in sports. These are all moral outrages, but also winnable issues. But he must understand that it is not enough.
What the Republican Party needs is a sweeping policy agenda to strengthen the American family. And so far, neither candidate has made such a statement. DeSantis is culture warrior He swept rich and rust-free Florida in 2022. It’s too early to say how he’ll market himself to the Cheeseheads and Michiganders. President Trump has used Mr. DeSantis’ lack of an economic message to call his rival “too online,” he said, targeting elite Republicans with college degrees rather than the lower-ranking voters who make up the former president’s base. But President Trump seems more obsessed with 2020 revenge than presenting a realistic vision. (Related: Who’s Really Running as President Trump’s Vice Presidential Candidate?)
With the right economic policy, he could exploit one of Biden’s key vulnerabilities to regain the rust belt. When Biden took office, his first job was to pass legislation. regain better behavior. Biden allowed the bill to be pared down and passed as an anti-inflation bill, largely due to opposition within his party led by moderate West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. The IRA included hundreds of billions of dollars in green energy subsidies, but more importantly what it didn’t. The BBB includes universal preschool and pre-kindergarten childcare, subsidized childcare, four weeks of paid family leave, at least one million new apprenticeships, free community college, and by sending checks to parents. It would have included expanding the child tax credit to reduce child poverty. monthly. In the end, Biden chose to abandon all of that and prioritize what causes climate change.
A true populist policy would take these policies, dust them off, and rework them for conservative purposes. Preschool funds, childcare subsidies and child tax credits could be combined with cash payments to families (with special bonuses to encourage marriage). These unconditional benefits can help pay for daycare, support live-in grandparents and nannies, or allow spouses to quit their jobs and stay home with their children. Extend family leave to six weeks. Pay for community college and spend your waking college funds to do an apprenticeship. Allocate green energy subsidies to build 50 new nuclear power plants. Intensify the trade war with China with the goal of bringing more industries home. Angle to gain support from private sector trade unions.
Senator in debt ceiling negotiations. @JDVance1 He has (so far) kept a low profile and done something really interesting – he offered to scale back the EV credits and use the money saved to eliminate the EITC’s marriage fines. pic.twitter.com/j6rzVBBYzD
— Patrick T. Brown (@PTBwrites) June 2, 2023
combine these policies with traditional Republican policies such as domestic stimulus oil productionsecure borders, and expand school options to have a winning agenda.
Republican voters, especially those in states they must win in 2024, are fed up with libertarian bromides. They want a president who will stand firm against the elites who have destroyed their communities and lives. They don’t want the government to get in the way. They want to undo, or at least mitigate, the damage caused by decades of neoliberal economic policies. They don’t want their children to be castrated or shamed for being white, but at the same time, children raised at home by their mothers have good jobs waiting in the area when they graduate. I hope that It is enough to pander to the awakened corporations who hate us. If Republicans want to win in 2024, now is the time to invest in American families.
Grayson Key is the editor of the Daily Caller.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of The Daily Caller.
