Former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party's path to victory 2,585 Catholic parishes Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
These six states are at the heart of the 2024 election. Polls are in flux, but each state except Montana remains in a close presidential race. Seven fierce competitions U.S. Senator, Six of the 22 toss-up battles will be held in these states. The fight for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. (Related: Keith Pekau: Tim Walz's record can't be ignored)
Catholics are the largest denomination in these states — there are more than 5 million fickle and sometimes unpredictable Catholic registered voters — and because of their size, geography and volatility, the Catholic voting blocs in these states are likely to determine partisan control in Washington.
Over the past few decades, Catholic voters, once at the heart of the Democratic coalition, have grown into the ultimate swing vote in federal elections. About 80% of Catholic voters There was a nationwide outpouring of support for fellow Catholic John F. Kennedy, but many recent federal elections in which both Republicans and Democrats won were decided by the size of the Catholic swing vote.
In 2016, Trump won the nation's Catholic vote. 52%-45% margin Tens of thousands Former Obama supporter They voted Republican in key states, particularly Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Trump's surprise Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton by narrow margins would not have been possible without the influx of Catholic voters to the Trump campaign.
But in 2020, Trump lost his Catholic advantage when Joe Biden, who identifies as Catholic, appeared on the ballot. A close race between Biden and TrumpWisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, which have large Catholic populations, once again supported the Democratic Party, and in Arizona, the increase in the Hispanic population was a factor in Biden's support. This shift away from Catholics to Trump was key to Biden-Harris' victory and the Democratic Party's acquisition of a majority in Congress.
With control of both houses of Congress and the presidency at stake, Republicans must do something they've never done before: an unprecedented, full-on outreach to Catholics. Unfortunately, they're already at a disadvantage. Their 2020 efforts began with the launch of “Catholics for Trump” 215 days before the election, but as of this writing, there are only 70 days until the election. And just 20 days later, the first mail-in ballots will begin to be distributed to voters in these key states. But fortunately, the Republicans have a killer weapon: Senator J.D. Vance. Although other Catholics have been nominated for vice presidential candidates, if Vance wins, he will be the first Republican Catholic vice president in U.S. history.
Catholic voters share most or all of the so-called “gaps” with the rest of the U.S. electorate: race, church attendance, age. White, older, church-going Catholics should be the Republican Party's primary target. And every Sunday, about one million Catholics sit in churches in 2,585 parishes in these six states. The Democrats, with their extreme policies and the most radically anti-Catholic candidate in history, can't target these voters, but Vance and other Republicans can and should.
And Democrats have set the stage for this. In the past few weeks, Vice President Kamala Harris, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and their media sycophants have been attacking Vance for his “bizarre” Catholic faith. Not only that, Harris has a long history of anti-Catholicism, exemplified by her attacks on three other judicial nominees:Brian Buescher She specifically removed two judges, Paul Matey and Peter Phipps, because she believed their Catholic faith made them unfit to serve as federal judges.
In response to this harsh criticism, Vance's emphasis on his genuine Catholic conversion could give the green light to swing Catholic voters to cast their ballots for Trump and other Republican candidates.
And this has been done successfully before in presidential elections, but by Democrats. In the 1960 election, John F. Kennedy, faced with a storm of anti-Catholic propaganda, managed to muster a massive Catholic vote that carried him to the White House. It is entirely possible and feasible to overturn the Catholic case against the Democratic Party, especially in this shortened election cycle.
Not since 1960 have devout Catholics been in a position powerful enough to influence an American election cycle. The story is clear.
To succeed in this fall's elections, Republicans will need the large numbers of devout Catholic voters in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and J. D. Vance should play a leading role.
Dr. Tim Huelskamp is a member of the 2024 Republican National Committee Platform Committee and ran for Congress representing Kansas’ 1st Congressional District for six years.
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