WASHINGTON — With his victory, President-elect Donald Trump could reshape American politics, building a conservative working-class coalition that includes many black and Latino voters and maintaining a majority for many years.

Republicans have a majority in the Senate and probably the House of Representatives. The Supreme Court has a 6-3 conservative majority.he now has an opportunity to shift public policy significantly to the right.

Or maybe you impulsively push everything into the ditch.

In his victory speech early Wednesday morning, Trump claimed voters had given him a “powerful mission.”

They did so, but for limited purposes.

What voters want from Trump

The campaign showed, and exit polls confirmed, that a broad swath of voters primarily wanted two things from Trump. The goal is to ensure that inflation does not return and to reduce the number of immigrants entering the United States.

There’s not much reason to think voters want to cede broad government powers to Elon Musk or give Robert F. Kennedy Jr. control of federal health policy.

Regarding other topics, there is strong evidence for what is called counterinjunction. For example, even in conservative states, voters have made it clear that: oppose moves to restrict abortion. There is little support for rollbacks domestically. LGBTQ+ rightsDespite the hopes of some of Trump’s evangelical supporters.

And there is little public support for President Trump to exact revenge against his Democratic opponents.

Will he risk reigniting inflation?

Preventing new widespread price increases should be easy. Inflation is already mostly under control After a spike in costs in 2022 and early 2023; interest rates are coming down. Basically, the job gets done without you having to do anything.

The problem is that President Trump doesn’t want to do anything. He wants to do a few things. impose huge tariffs and enact New personal and corporate tax cuts — Involves high inflation risk.

Congress gives the president great power to impose tariffs, or taxes on imported goods. But a wide range of economists have warned that doing so would raise prices across the economy.

Large tax cuts would increase the federal deficit. Already operating at record levels. That’s also inflation.

Immediately after the election, interest rates rose as bond investors began pricing in the possibility of another round of inflation under the Trump administration.

The new administration may seek to offset tax cuts with spending cuts, particularly on health care and supporting the poor and elderly. Many Democrats believe he will support renewed Republican efforts to make deep cuts to Medicaid and health insurance. Reduction of health insurance subsidies based on the Affordable Care Act; This enables coverage for tens of millions of Americans.

This time, however, President Trump avoided taking action to repeal the health care law himself, and the campaign ultimately ended. political disaster Last time it was to him.

Moreover, the history of the past half-century has repeatedly shown that Republicans often talk more about spending cuts when they leave office than they do when they are in power and enact them. Instead, they defaulted on their debts, which was the pattern of President Trump’s first term.

How far will President Trump go: Immigration

Reducing the immigrant population may become even more difficult for the new administration.

Voters were undoubtedly dissatisfied with immigration issues during President Biden’s tenure. Now the majority wants fewer immigrants entering the countrylegal or illegal; Open to the idea of ​​mass deportation Number of people living in the United States without legal permission.

Trump’s core supporters feel particularly strongly about this issue. About a third of them cited immigration as the most important issue, the paper said. AP VoteCast survey of 115,000 voters.

Their anger doesn’t stop at national borders. Immigrants now make up about 14% of the U.S. population, near an all-time high. It helps the economy, stems things like labor shortages, Depopulation is hitting countries like Japan and South Korea. But it also brought about social and cultural changes that made many Americans uneasy.

But most emotions can swing in both directions. When President Trump campaigned against immigration during his first term, many Americans believed he went too far. It sparked a wave of pro-immigration sympathy.

President Trump has vowed to launch “the largest domestic deportation campaign in American history.” his advisor, Stephen Miller talks about forming a ‘huge squad’ It deploys National Guard troops and law enforcement officers from conservative states to hunt down millions of people living in the country illegally, trucking them into detention camps and then expelling them.

In August, a majority of voters (56% overall, 88% of Trump supporters) said they strongly or somewhat agreed. Supports “mass deportation” According to a Pew Research Center study, a high percentage of immigrants are in this country illegally.

But that doesn’t mean they support Miller’s dreams.

Voters’ views on immigration are often complex. In another question in the same Pew survey, 61% of voters (though only a third of Trump supporters) said that immigrants without legal status “can legally enter the country if certain requirements are met.” It turns out that the answer is that you should be able to stay.

Other studies have shown that when pollsters ask about specific categories of illegal immigrants in the U.S., such as long-time residents, spouses of U.S. citizens, and people brought to the U.S. illegally as children, Support for expulsion has been found to decline.

How far will President Trump go: the rule of law

Efforts to prosecute Trump for federal crimes are over. Any president has the power to direct the Justice Department to drop the case, and Trump has said he intends to do so. Fire Special Prosecutor Jack Smith “Within 2 seconds”

Smith has already made plans to scale back his efforts; He asked the judge to suspend all proceedings in the election interference case.

Trump similarly cannot preclude two criminal cases against him in state court. New York hush money and fraud cases The case in which he was convicted in May and the Georgia case in which he was charged. Charged with interfering with the 2020 election. The president has no authority over local district attorneys or state judges.

But these cases pose less of a threat to President Trump than federal prosecutors.

Trump has not yet been sentenced in the New York case, and sentencing is currently scheduled for Nov. 26, but the judge could dismiss the case before Tuesday’s deadline or delay sentencing indefinitely. sanctions beyond a fine are seen as unlikely.

The Georgia case is facing one problem after another and could be stuck in a potentially deadly quagmire.

In addition to ending the case against him, Mr. Trump has been suggesting for nearly two years that he: Pardon some or all of those convicted of storming the Capitol. On January 6, 2021, many of them were found guilty of assaulting law enforcement officers.

Both of these measures are likely to draw the ire of liberals, who Mr. Trump seems to relish, but Tuesday’s results suggest that a majority of voters won’t care much. strongly suggests.

But if Trump continues his course, they may feel different. threaten to use federal power to go after political opponents. For example, he has talked about appointing a special counsel to pursue an unspecified investigation into Biden, and may revive an eight-year-old threat to prosecute his 2016 opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. .

One thing that a majority of Americans consistently agree on is a desire to reduce partisan conflict.

How far will President Trump go: Abortion

President Trump will come under intense pressure from Republican abortion opponents to impose new restrictions. There is There are many things that can be done without new laws. Received requests from Congress specifically to restrict medical abortions.

During the campaign, he avoided answering questions about what, if any, restrictions he would approve. His public statements made it clear that he understood: The political danger this issue poses to his party.

This election, voters will vote on abortion rights in two very conservative states, Montana and Missouri, the battleground states of Arizona and Nevada, and three liberal states: Colorado, Maryland, and New York. Approved the measure. In President Trump’s home state of Florida, the abortion rights bill won a clear majority at 57 percent, but fell short of the 60 percent needed to amend the state constitution.

According to the APVoteCast poll, just under two-thirds of voters nationwide say abortion should be legal in all (25%) or most (38%) cases. of Exit poll conducted for major TV networks There were very similar numbers.

One key to Trump’s victory was that he won 40% of voters who said the process should be legal in most cases, according to an Associated Press poll. In network exit polls, the share was even higher at 49%.

All of this suggests that Democrats have been unable to convince a majority of voters that President Trump poses a significant threat to abortion rights.

This is consistent with how voters view President Trump overall, with more than half saying they believe his views are “too extreme.” However, enough voters still supported him and led him to victory.

Depending on whether he allays their doubts or deepens them, can he turn this week’s victory into a lasting political victory or a series of self-inflicted wounds? will be decided soon.

What else should I read?

LA Times Feature: California’s political identity is in question as progressive voting policies head towards failure

Exit poll: Two exit polls provide preliminary data on this year’s voters. This is Opinion poll conducted on major television networks and APVoteCast Survey.

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