What themes and messages are working in the polls?
As former President Donald Trump approaches a crucial first debate with President Joe Biden, most battleground state polls show Trump with big leads in key Sun Belt states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and slight leads or ties in northern battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
My labor advocacy group American Federation of Laborhas been conducting extensive polling in battleground states for several months, and these surveys have confirmed and solidified which states will resonate most with Trump as he faces Biden head-to-head.
These polls are North Star Opinion ResearchUsing a representative sample of votes from the 2020 presidential election.
The three most important issues are:
1- Biden’s cognitive problems— Voters are now clearly acknowledging the reality of Biden's mental capacity. In Arizona investigationFor example, only 36% of voters believe Biden is “mentally competent to serve as president for the next four years.” Even among Democrats, 17% do not believe Biden is mentally competent, and a majority of independents, 55%, say he is not competent.
Trump should acknowledge this reality, with one caveat: show empathy for this problem that afflicts millions of older Americans. He should say, “Joe, your cognitive problems are not your fault. Many Americans have the same problems their parents and grandparents had. I don't blame you for your problems. No one blames you. But you can no longer run for president of your state.”
2- Immigration— Biden's reckless and radical open border policies have created an astonishing aversion to immigrants among swing state voters, endangering America's national security, forcing American workers to contend with illegal competition in the labor market from illegal immigrants, and threatening the safety of American streets as preventable immigrant crime spreads across the country.
North Carolina vote As we promoted earlier, only 13% of voters in North Carolina said immigration had “improved the quality of life in the state.” Even among Biden's 2020 supporters, only 26% believe immigration has improved their lives. In the border state of Arizona, 72% of residents rate the federal government's border performance as “weak.” Trump should therefore press the issue hard and often, using the tragic murder of Lincoln Riley as the most poignant example of the dangers of an open border.
3- InflationTrump has a big lead on economic issues in general, and especially on the all-important “wealth” index. In Wisconsin, a state that was decided by close margins in the past two presidential elections, voters report By a 54% to 39% margin, independents who said they have been “better off” under Trump widened to 55% to 32%. Even among Democrats, just 11% acknowledged they have been better off under the 45th president.
Trump can make this point most effectively by exposing Biden's constant lies about real wages, which is what inflation-adjusted wages are. A compliant and corrupt corporate media has always allowed Biden to lie, but the truth is explanation Yahoo Finance used real data that shows Americans are working harder but getting less for their money. Purchasing power is plummeting with Biden's soaring inflation. After all, it doesn't take an economist or data expert to fool Americans about the economic realities at their dinner tables. For example, in the battleground state of Nevada, A staggering 64% believe “Biden economics” will not work for middle-class families..
Our survey found that food prices are the aspect of inflation that bothers Americans the most, with a majority blaming Biden for the grim new reality at the grocery store. Trump could flesh out the argument by pointing out that Biden's own administration decided to: The “thrifty” grocery plan for a family of four rose from $675 to $975 a month during his presidency.That's a shocking 44% increase that will strain middle-class budgets. Trump should stand to Biden's face and say, “You and your radical buddies are costing even frugal American families an extra $75 a week just to eat! That's unacceptable, Joe.”
Delivered with the right combination of strength and empathy, these powerful messages can turn Trump's current modest battlefield lead into an overwhelming one. It's time to start saving America.
Steve Cortez is a former senior advisor to President Donald Trump and former commentator for Fox News and CNN. He is currently the president of the American Federation of Labor and a polling and strategy contributor to American Greatness.
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